The Big LULL Continues

Market Pricing Update & Commentary

As per usual at this time of the year; it starts with harvest pressure and bid reductions across the board for cereal grains and sometimes pulses, normally a significant reduction in delivered bids Jan-Jun, site bids, on-farm bids and off-the-header bids.

Then comes the “LULL” this is a result of calling on contracts created on a delivered basis between January and June. In my experience contracts are called on early “IF” January/February/March prices are higher than the contract price, alternatively if prices are lower than the contract prices; purchasing behaviour is motivated toward snapping up lower prices while they are there and deferring pre-contracted deliveries “IF” prices exceed term contracts. So if buyers have cover for the first period then sellers will need to make them offers “That They Can’t Refuse” Said in an Al Capone Accent

For example: “The Spread” between wheat and barley and the elasticity between pre-contracts for the same term.

Below is a list of price indications and estimates as at 22nd February 2019

KEY TO PRICING
Price estimates are based on averages & dependent on X-Farm Location or Delivery Methods, Prices indicated below show the fluctuations ▲▼ ◄► from the previous update. Positive short-term pricing outlook (6-8 Weeks) indicated by ✪ Long-Term (3-6 Months) ✪ ✪ Please note listed prices are based on “Supplier Selling Expectations for Today Only” Unless otherwise stated. Prices shown below, show Buyer bid range on the left and seller offer range on the right i.e Barley (bid range $360-$365/ Offer range $380-$395 Please note the “Bid / Offer Ranges are only derived from current markets and reflect both “Trade Buyers & Domestic Buyers AND Trade Sellers & Growers.

Barley

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 5.7 Million Tonnes (3.8 from WA)

Reports of increasing interest of wheat & barley shipments into TPP, China, Saudi Arabia, Melbourne, Newcastle and Brisbane. However barley dropped lower again with delivered offers down from last update ▼ another $4 to Del Melb $363

Australian Barley Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 3.4 Million Tonnes – With an Export Minimum Commitment of 3-4 Million Tonnes

Grower confidence continuing to strengthen saying with only approx. 5.7 million tonnes of barley in the country and an average Australian consumption of 3.4 million tonnes and a commitment to export min 4 million tonnes to TPP… so things are looking good… Average grower expectations ex-farm Victoria $375-$395 / Riverina/NSW $400-$412

Wheat

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 17.9 Million Tonnes (14.8 from WA)

Wheat lost ground ▼ approx. $2-$3 to Del Melb $396-$405

Australian Wheat Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 9 Million Tonnes – with a minimum export commitment of 8-10 Million Tonnes.

However with a sliding (Hammer Last Night ) AUD (currently $0.70.9) exports could see a resurgence as Australian Wheat & Barley & Pulses are world renowned for quality. Again when you consider total harvest numbers compared to consumption and export commitments. it seems that reserves will be low or even depleted by July/August 2019. (Expected $0.68)

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For Firm Pricing & Market Guidance Call GrainPro:

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Mario: 0412 315 548 
Cameron: 0488 400 660 
Nick : 0457 238 932 
Josh: 0455 113 910
Planting Seed & Fertiliser: 1800 816 887
Jemma: Hay & Mixed Feeds: 1800 816 887

Below is a list of price indications and estimates as at 22nd February 2019

Key to Pricing.
Price estimates are based on averages & dependent on X-Farm Location or Delivery Methods, Prices indicated below show the fluctuations ▲▼ ◄► from the previous update. Positive short-term pricing outlook (6-8 Weeks) indicated by ✪ Long-Term (3-6 Months) ✪ ✪ Please note listed prices are based on “Supplier Selling Expectations for Today Only” Unless otherwise stated. Prices shown below, show Buyer bid range on the left and seller offer range on the right i.e Barley (bid range $360-$365/ Offer range $380-$395 Please note the “Bid / Offer Ranges are only derived from current markets and reflect both “Trade Buyers & Domestic Buyers AND Trade Sellers & Growers.

Indicative Prices For Today 22nd February 2019

BARLEY F1: (Delivered Bids/Offers) ✪ ✪
VIC: MELB ▼ $360-$365 / $368-$70
VIC GV ▼ $365-$370 / $375-$378

VIC WG ▼ $375-$385 / $400-$405

QLD: CQ ▼ $390-$400 / $415-$420
DOWNS ▼ $378-$382 / $395-$400
BRIS FOT ▼ $368-$370 / $372-$380

NSW: LLP ▼ No Bids/ $475-$480
RIV ▼ $445 / No Offers
NCTL FOT ▼ $385-$390 / $395-$405

WHEAT min SFW: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC: MELB ▼ $403-$408 / $408-$415
GV ▼ $405-$415 / $415-$420
WG ▼ $420-$430 / $435-$445

QLD: CQ ▼ /
Downs ▼ $440 / $460
BRIS FOT ▼ $415-$420 / $425-$435

NSW: LLP ▼ $445-$50 / $460-$475
RIV ▼ $418-$425 / $430-$440
NCTL FOT ▼ $415-$425 / $430-$440

CHICKPEAS: (DCT Bids/Offers) 18/19
BRIS-SYD (Desi) ▲ $850-$855 / $880-$900 (Kabuli) ▲ $750-$755 / $800-$825
MELB-ADL (Desi) ◄► $850 -$870 / $885-$900 – (Kabuli) ◄► $810-$850

LENTILS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC / SA ▼ Nipper $560-$565 / $585-$600 – Jumbo ▼ $600-$620 / $700-$720 – Nuggets ▼ $580-$585 / $660-$690

CANOLA ✪: (Delivered Bids/Offers) VIC ▼ $580-$582 / $620-$650 – NSW ▼ $615-$620 / $640-$655

SORGHUM: (Bids/Offers)
CQ XF ▼ XF $330-$335
DOWNS ▼ DEL $363-$370 / $370-$385
BRIS ▼ DEL $365-$370 / $380-$390
NCTL ▼ DEL $400-$405 / $415-$425
MELB ▲ DEL No Bids / $490-$500 ✪

OATS M1: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC ▼ $510-$520 / $535-$550
NTH NSW ▼ $550-$555 / $565-$570

CORN: (XFarm Bids/Offers) 18/19
VIC ▲$445-$450 / $455-$465
RIV ▲$455-$460 / $465-$470

LUPINS Rnd: (XFarm Bids/Offers)
VIC ▲ $560-$565 / $570-$580 Melb FOT $540-$545

LUPINS Albus: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC DCT ▼ $1150-$1155 / $1190-$1200 ✪

FIELD PEAS: (XFarm Bids/Offers)
VIC ▼ $550-$560 / $570-$600

FABA BEANS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC – SA ▼$1120-$1130 / $1190-$1200

HAY: (XFarm Bids/Offers) VIC ▼ $195 – $210

STRAW: (XFarm Bids/Offers) SA / VIC ▼ $70 – $80

COTTONSEED: (FOT Bids/Offers) 18/19
MIA RIV ▲ $450-$460 / $480-$490
NTH NSW ▲ $495-$500 / $540-$550
QLD ▲$540-$550 / $$580-$600