Have Australian Grain Prices Hit Bottom?

YES In Our Opinion the only way is UP! “However….”

I Think its common knowledge that usually harvest prices can represent some “Value” additionally for speculators “Pre-Contracted” prices can work in favour of both Supplier or Buyer (usually trade buyers)

So,
Hypothesis 1: Trade Buyers and End-users go shopping during April pre-planting – May of any given year hoping to snag a bargain from suppliers and or simply playing the paper market. For example some growers in Victoria sold pre-harvest 17/18 contracts for: Wheat $280, Barley $250 & Oats at $200 per metric tonne… do the maths!

Hypothesis 2: Trade buyers and End-users buy grain into storage or off-the-header at harvest. In Victoria delivered into various sites averaged from Wheat $378-$410 Barley #320-$370.. Do the maths!

Hypothesis 3: Trade buyers and End-users buy grain on contract on a delivery period plus carry, usually between January to June in any given year. Delivery can happen at anytime during Jan-Jun if purchased on a buyers call contract. So, [IF] prices post harvest are lower than harvest site prices then most Trade Buyers and or end-users would NOT be motivated to take delivery of any new contracts UNLESS offers are significantly lower than the harvest pre-contract site prices.

Hypothesis 4: Predictable market conditions and unpredictable market conditions.

Predictable:

Harvest not enough storage.
Off-the-header discounts

Farmers need cash-flow
Budgets; by March- April every year for planting seed, fertiliser, chemicals, wages, equipment

Unpredictable:

Futures market
Overseas conditions
Currency fluctuations
Weather conditions

In my opinion, it comes down to farm / business management, in particular for Farmer/Growers. How well a grower manages; finance, expenditure, planning, marketing, rotation and equipment will determine whether or not they will be at the mercy of market conditions at any given point in time. We have found that the ability for some farmers to manage business affairs is highly determined by the amount of external advice they can research or pay for. The above commentary is free…

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**Grain price update and estimates as at 28th February 2019**

KEY TO PRICING

Price estimates are based on averages & dependent on X-Farm Location or Delivery Methods, Prices indicated below show the fluctuations ▲▼ ◄► from the previous update. Positive short-term pricing outlook (6-8 Weeks) indicated by ✪ Long-Term (3-6 Months) ✪ ✪ Please note listed prices are based on “Supplier Selling Expectations for Today Only” Unless otherwise stated. Prices shown below, show Buyer bid range on the left and seller offer range on the right i.e Barley (bid range $355-$365/ Offer range $375-$390 Please note the “Bid / Offer Ranges are only derived from current markets and reflect both “Trade Buyers & Domestic Buyers AND Trade Sellers & Growers.

**BARLEY**

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 5.7 Million Tonnes (3.8 from WA)

Reports of increasing interest of wheat & barley shipments into TPP, China, Saudi Arabia, Melbourne, Newcastle and Brisbane. However barley dropped lower again with delivered offers down from last update ▼ another $2 to Del Melb $360 and Bid $355

Australian Barley Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 3.4 Million Tonnes – With an Export Minimum Commitment of 3-4 Million Tonnes

Grower confidence continuing to strengthen saying with only approx. 5.7 million tonnes of barley in the country and an average Australian consumption of 3.4 million tonnes and a commitment to export min 4 million tonnes to TPP… Average grower expectations ex-farm Victoria ◄► $355-$375 / Riverina/NSW $395-$415

**WHEAT**

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 17.9 Million Tonnes (14.8 from WA)

Wheat lost ground again yesterday ▼ approx. $5-7 to Del Melb $390-$403

Australian Wheat Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 9 Million Tonnes – with a minimum export commitment of 8-10 Million Tonnes.

However with a sliding AUD ▼ (currently $0.71.3) exports could see a resurgence as Australian Wheat & Barley & Pulses are world renowned for quality. Again when you consider total harvest numbers compared to consumption and export commitments. it seems that reserves will be low or even depleted by May/July/August 2019.
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**For Firm Pricing & Market Guidance Call GrainPro:**
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Nick : 0457 238 932
Josh: 0455 113 910
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**Current Bids & Offers For Today 28th February 2019**

BARLEY F1: (Delivered Bids/Offers) ✪ ✪
VIC: MELB ◄► $353-$355 / $363-$370
VIC GV ◄► $355-$360 / $365-$378
VIC WG ◄► $370-$385 / $400-$405

QLD: CQ ◄► $387-$400 / $415-$420
DOWNS ◄► $377-$380 / $390-$400
BRIS FOT ◄► $368-$370 / $372-$380

NSW: LLP ▲$ 397-$403 / $408-$420
RIV ◄► $390-$395 / $400-$415
NCTL FOT ◄► $385-$390 / $395-$405

WHEAT min SFW: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC: MELB ▼ $390-$400 / $405-$415
GV ◄► $393-$395 / $410-$420
WG ◄► $410-$415 / $430-$445

QLD: CQ ◄► $425-$440 / $430-$450
Downs ◄► $415-$420 / $425-$440
BRIS FOT ◄► $400-$410 / $415-$430

NSW: LLP ▲ $443-$50 / $460-$475
RIV ◄► $408-$415 / $420-$435
NCTL FOT ◄► $410-$417 / $420-$435

CHICKPEAS: (DCT Bids/Offers) 18/19
BRIS-SYD (Desi) ◄► $850-$855 / $880-$900 (Kabuli) ◄► $750-$755 / $800-$825
MELB-ADL (Desi) ◄► $850 -$870 / $885-$900 – (Kabuli) ◄► $810-$850

LENTILS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC / SA ▼ Nipper $555-$565 / $580-$600 – Jumbo ◄► No Bids / $700-$720 – Nuggets ▼ No Bids / $620-$640

CANOLA ✪: (Delivered Bids/Offers) VIC ▲ $610-$615 / $630-$655 – NSW ◄► $625-$630 / $645-$660

SORGHUM: (Bids/Offers)
CQ XF ◄► FOT $340-$345 / $350-$60
DOWNS ◄► DEL $356-$360 / $365-$380
BRIS ◄► DEL $370-$375 / $380-$390
NCTL ◄► DEL $395-$400 / $405-$425
MELB ◄► DEL No Bids / $490-$500 ✪

OATS M1: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC ◄► $510-$520 / $535-$550
NTH NSW ◄► $550-$555 / $565-$570

CORN: ( Bids/Offers) 18/19
VIC XF ▲$450-$465 / $475-$485
RIV XF ▲ $460-$465 / $465-$470

LUPINS Rnd: (Bids/Offers)
VIC XF ◄► $560-$565 / $570-$580 Melb FOT $540-$545

LUPINS Albus: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC DCT ◄► $1150-$1155 / $1190-$1200 ✪

FIELD PEAS: (Bids/Offers)
VIC XF ◄► $550-$560 / $570-$600

FABA BEANS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC – SA ◄►$1170-$1180 / $1190-$1200

HAY: XF (Bids/Offers) VIC ◄► $195 – $210

STRAW: XF (Bids/Offers) SA / VIC ◄► $70 – $80

COTTONSEED: (FOT Bids/Offers) 18/19
MIA RIV ▲ $495-$500 / $500-$525
NTH NSW ▲ $535-$540 / $555-$570
QLD ◄►$575-$580 / $600-$620