Cereal Grain Set to Rise Post May/June 2019 Relative To Supply

SEE ABARES PRICE INDICATORS & COMPARISONS 2017-2018-2019: CLICK HERE

MARKET PRICE CONDITIONING: CLICK HERE

If you ignore the current market price conditioning attempts and consider the actual supply and remaining reserves of Australian grain one becomes optimistic. Market conditioning is a pricing strategy designed to keep turnover flowing;

For Example:

If a product pricing offer is high comparative to supply coverage (Harvest Prices) then the market bid strategy must become lower and lower in an attempt for market prices to be set much lower than the coverage price (Harvest Prices If They Are High).

Can You Trust Recently Advertised Trades?:

Another example is advertised recent trades, this is where “sold” prices are advertised as recently traded; however the average Grower/Supplier is unaware of exactly who has made the trade or if the trade actually occurred at all. In most instances and in order to keep the flow these trades are more than likely internal trades or trade supplier trades to other traders or even paper trades between traders, rather than Grower/Supplier Trades. This creates confusion and a perception of the current value of the commodity and ignores contributing factors like supply and demand and actual remaining reserves.

Why Is The Australian Market Fixed On Contracting 2 Major Periods? Jan-Jun & Jun/Jul-Nov-Dec

This fixed contracting period has become an industry standard and offers some security to both sides, however in fact contracts can be for any agreed period and flexible according to market and personal circumstances/conditions.

Hedging, Swaps and Other Products:

See WestPac Brochure: CLICK HERE

See Commodity Swaps: CLICK HERE

Recent weeks has seen barley gain momentum as predicted in our last few updates, with wheat slower but improving. Barley is up a promising ▲ $19 from just a few weeks ago and is set to continue through to Mid May into June when suppliers are expecting a significant spike. (See Below Grainpro’s Forecast Estimates For Post June 2019 Pricing Signals).

Increased interest from TPP buyers and rapidly depleting cereal grain reserves in WA, SA & VIC has suppliers ready and standing at the gate. In our opinion the post harvest LULL is brewing (China) for a “Grain-Grin” surprise post Mother’s Day 2019

Current Grain Hay & Fertiliser Pricing Week Ending 23rd April

HAY: On-farm pmt / Dependent on location 8x3x4 min 600kg Feed Test Must Be Provided

Cereal: VIC ▲ Bids $320+ ▲ Offers $335+ min 9.5% protein 9 ME
Blends: VIC ◄► Bids $325+ ◄► Offers $335+ 10+% protein 9 ME
Canola: VIC ◄► Bids $250 ▼ Offers $260 min 14+% protein 10 ME
Clover: VIC ◄► Bids $350 ◄► Offers $360+ min 14+% protein 10 ME
Vetch: VIC ◄► Bids $385 ◄► Offers $400+ min 23+% protein 11 ME
Lucerne: VIC ▼ Bids $440 ◄► Offers $500+ min 26+% protein 12 ME

STRAW: XF (Bids/Offers)

SA / VIC ◄► Bids $120+ – NSW ◄► $150+

FERTILISER

MAP – DAP – UREA – SUPER & BLENDS

FOT or Delivered: NSW, SA, VIC & QLD: Call JOSH: 0455 113 910

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For Firm Pricing & Market Guidance Call GrainPro:

Mario: 0412 315 548
Cameron: 0488 400 660
Nick : 0457 238 932
Josh: 0455 113 910
Planting Seed & Fertiliser: 1800 816 887
Hay & Mixed Feeds: 1800 816 887 or Mario 0412 315 548

Grain price update and estimates as at 23rd April 2019

KEY TO PRICING

Price estimates are based on averages & dependent on X-Farm Location or Delivery Methods, Prices indicated below show the fluctuations ▲▼ ◄► from the previous update. Positive short-term pricing outlook (6-8 Weeks) indicated by ✪ Long-Term (3-6 Months) ✪ ✪ Please note listed prices are based on “Supplier Selling Expectations for Today Only” Unless otherwise stated. Prices shown below, show Buyer bid range on the left and seller offer range on the right i.e Barley (bid range $370-$380/ Offer range $385-$405 Please note the “Bid / Offer Ranges are only derived from current markets and reflect both “Trade Buyers & Domestic Buyers AND Trade Sellers & Growers.

See More Live Grain Prices: [CLICK HERE]

WHEAT

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 17.9 Million Tonnes (14.8t from WA)

Wheat is UP again ▲ with Del Melb Bid $385- Offered $402

Australian Wheat Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 9 Million Tonnes – with a minimum export commitment of 8-10 Million Tonnes.
AUD ▼ (currently $0.71.4) exports have see a resurgence as Australian Wheat & Barley & Pulses are world renowned for quality. Again when you consider total harvest numbers compared to consumption and export commitments. it seems that reserves will be low or even depleted by May/June/July 2019.

BARLEY

Total Australian Harvest Approx. 5.7 Million Tonnes (3.8t from WA)

Easter Bunny Morphs into a Bull for Barley; Barley is set to continue to rise in the coming weeks leading past Easter 2019 with delivered bids up from last update ▲ Del Melb Bid $385- & Offered ▲ $398+

Australian Barley Consumption for 2019 is estimated to be approx. 3.4 Million Tonnes – With an Export Minimum Commitment of 3-4 Million Tonnes

Grower confidence continuing to strengthen saying with only approx. 5.7 million tonnes of barley in the country and an average Australian consumption of 3.4 million tonnes and a commitment to export min 4 million tonnes to TPP… Average grower expectations ex-farm Victoria ▲ $375 – $400 / Riverina/NSW ▲ $417-$430

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Current Bids & Offers For Today 23rd April 2019
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BARLEY F1: (Delivered Bids/Offers) ✪ ✪
VIC: MELB Bids ◄► $365-$380 / Offers ▲ $388-$405
VIC GV Bids ◄► $390-$395 / Offers ▲ $407-$420
VIC WG Bids ◄► $410-$420 / Offers ◄►$430-$445

QLD: CQ Bids ◄► $397 – $402 / Offers ◄► $410-$440
DOWNS Bids ◄► $385 / Offers ◄► $395-$440
BRIS FOT Bids ▲ $380-$385 / Offers ▲ $395 – $420

NSW: LLP Bids ◄► $415-$422 / Offers ▲ $432-$453
RIV Bids ◄► $385-$390 / Offers ▲ $405-$410
NCTL FOT Bids ◄► $370-$375 / Offers ▲ $387-$420

WHEAT min SFW: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC: MELB ▼ Bids $380-$385 / Offers ▲ $405-$420
GV Bids ▼ $390-$400 / Offers ▲ $405-$428
WG Bids ▼ $400-$410 / Offers ▲ $417-$432

QLD: CQ ◄► NO Bids / Offers ▲ $445-$455
Downs ◄► NO Bids / Offers ◄► $415 -$440
BRIS FOT ◄► NO Bids / Offers ◄► $395-$420

NSW: LLP ◄► Bids $430-$440 / Offers ▲ $450-$460
RIV: ▼ Bids $385 -$390 / Offers ▲ $412-$425
NCTL FOT ◄► NO Bids / ▲ $402-$410

CHICKPEAS: (DCT Bids/Offers) 18/19
BRIS-SYD (Desi) ▲ Bids $740-$755 / ▼ Offers $760-$770 (Kabuli) ◄► $750-$755 / Offers $800-$825
MELB-ADL (Desi) ◄► $780-$785 / Offers $830-$850 – (Kabuli) ◄► $810-$850

LENTILS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC / SA◄► Nipper Bids $545-$550 / Offers ◄► $565-$600 – Jumbo ◄► Bids $555 / Offers ◄► $600+ Nuggets ◄► No Bids / Offers ◄► $600-$640

FEED LENTILS:
VIC / SA Bids ◄► $455-$465 / Offers ◄►$470-$480

CANOLA ✪: (Delivered Bids/Offers)

VIC ◄► Bids ▼ $560-$565 / ▲ Offers $622-$640

NSW ◄► Bids $635-$640 / Offers ▲ $647-$660

SORGHUM: (Bids/Offers)
CQ FOT Bids ◄► $340-$345 / Offers ▲$357-$365
DOWNS DEL Bids ◄► $345-$350 / Offers ▲ $365-$385
BRIS DEL Bids ▼ $360-$375 / Offers ▲ $372-$400
NCTL DEL Bids ▼ $370-$375 / Offers ▲ $392-$420
MELB DEL No Bids / Offers ◄► $463-$470 ✪

OATS M1: (Delivered Bids/Offers)
VIC Bids ◄► $512-$530 / Offers ◄► $540-$560
NTH NSW Bids ◄► $551-$555 / Offers ◄► $568-$572

CORN: ( Bids/Offers) 18/19
VIC XF Bids ◄► $454-$467 / Offers◄► $478-$480
RIV XF Bids ◄► $462-$465 / Offers ◄► $477-$483

LUPINS Rnd: (Bids/Offers)
VIC XF Bids ◄► $590 -$595 / Offers ▲ $607-$620 Melb FOT ◄► $540-$545

LUPINS Albus: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC DCT ◄► Bids $1120-$1135 / Offers ▼ $1160-$1200 ✪

FIELD PEAS: (Bids/Offers)
VIC DCT ◄► Bids $555 – $575 / ▲ Offers $605-$625

FABA BEANS: (DCT Bids/Offers)
VIC – SA ◄► NO BIDS / ▼ Offers $1050-$1100

COTTONSEED: (FOT Bids/Offers) 2019
MIA RIV ◄► Bids $450-$455 / Offers ◄► $470-$510
NTH NSW ◄► Bids $530-$550 / Offers▼ $560-$570
QLD ◄► Bids NO BIDS / Offers ▼ $620-$640