Australian Commodity Price Update 12 July 2019

 

 

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MARKET UPDATE 12th JULY 2019

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AUD / USD ▼$0.69.7
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OVERSEAS MARKETS

After a slow start to the week, both wheat and corn futures in the US have jumped 21 and 12 cents respectively over the last two sessions. This appears to be on the back of the USDA supply and Demand report which significantly lowered forecasts of wheat supplies and ending stocks. Apart from that this morning’s report held no major surprises with most numbers coming out as expected based on the June report numbers. With the USDA seems to be essentially kicking the can down the road regarding the debated June crop report numbers and this month the USDA will be conducting a second survey of growers to hopefully better determine actual acres planted and we should get those results by mid-August.

In global news, the expectations for the Russian wheat crop exports have dropped from 37.6 million tonnes to 33 million. This is predominantly due to the run of very hot and dry weather there that is affecting the quality and yield. Also, the expectations for the Chinese corn crop are being lowered due to government policies encouraging the planting of soybeans as well as increased issues to do with fall army-worm. This effect has been tempered by the slowdown in demand for animal feed in China due to the outbreak of African swine fever which has lowered the hog population by 20% according to the Unitec Nation Food and Agriculture organisation, though getting an accurate number out of China has been difficult with estimates ranging widely.

AUSTRALIA NEW CROP CEREALS

Weather

Across the last week we’ve seen strong rainfalls recorded across the Western Australian wheat belt, continuing the resurgence to growing conditions after a terribly dry may. These rainfalls were also experienced across the majority of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. As has been the way for the last little while measurements were however mixed depending on the cloud above your head. We’re all waiting for that real general rain to appear rather than the storms that currently fill our sky’s.

Moving forward the 8 day forecast looks best over Central Victoria and into the Riverina and Up into the Central West of NSW. Minimal falls expected for Western Australia and Queensland.

The more consistent rainfall across our larger growing areas has seen new crop bids soften around $5-10 for wheat and barley in delivered market zones. Still not seeing a huge amount of interest from the grower base at this stage.

There is minimal engagement at this point from growers in the 19/20 new crop markets, feedback we have received in recent months indicated that the growers would generally like to see the season further progressed prior to entering this market. The majority of selling interest is coming from the trade while trade and end users alike are bidding in this market with no great consistence.

WESTERN AUSTRALIAN GRAIN UPDATE

Western Australia new crop is looking bright statewide after some good rainfalls YTD after a very slow start. GIWA

Wheat 4.5 million hectares up on last season
Barley 2 million hectares up on last season
Canola 1 million hectares down on last season
Oats 350,000.00 up on last season
Pulses 400,000 down on last season

Mean while we did a bit of a crop tour earlier in the week passing through
Horsham, Murtoa, Minyip, Donald, Quambatook, Kerang, and Koondrook, crops all looking
Very green and advanced, water even lying in some areas. Lots of barley, canola, oats and faba beans sown. If the rain continues Victoria should have a good season.
Some rain earlier in the week recorded in central west NSW

Condobolin – 16mm Trangie – 9mm
Parkes – 10mm Boggabri – 16mm
Been very dry to do date in those regions but crops still hanging on

Pulses still very slow at the moment

Victorian origin Lupins still in demand going into NSW bringing 610-615 pmt in the Mallee on farm
Field Peas remain scarce but stable in price at 530pmt on farm in Wimmera /Mallee
New crop faba bean buying interest dropped away a bit this week down $20pmt from last at around 630pmt dct for Nov/Dec, still a traditionally good price

NEW CROP PULSES

Some new crop Faba Bean buying interest coming in at around $640pmt Melb, Which aside from this seasons record high prices traditionally is a good price, especially with a large Faba Bean crop potentially coming. Mostly grown in Vic and Sa both states have great had great starts to the season.

Demand this week for both Nipper and Nugget lentils at around 560-565pmt DCT Melb or Adelaide. So sideways market

Albus Lupin old crop demand around $970 pmt DCT, grower expectations on these still much higher over $1000 pmt on farm, very little product remaining.
New crop demand coming in at around $650 pmt DCT Melb

Cottonseed remains stable at 440 – 450pmt ex MIA gins and Moree at around $515pmt for July only. Very few offers for aug onwards after this with gins in northern nsw expected to stop ginning in August. You would expect to see some price rises from August onwards given still dry in the north and the lack of cottonseed liquidity from then onward.

Oats remain stable to firm at 550-560 del Melb with product coming into Melb, Parkes and Newcastle from WA to service the various buyers. Very few oats remain in WA so this will be an interesting space once they dry up.

Showers have started in Western Australia already, with the latest models still forecasting for 15-25 millimetres or more across the entire wheatbelt into the weekend. A storm cell is still expected to hold to the south once it has crossed the Great Australian Bight, but there has been some improvement for the chance of rain in southern and central New South Wales, where 10-15mm would hold up crops nicely. However, very little rain is in the forecast for northern NSW and southern Queensland.

12TH JULY 2019 EXPECTED BIDS & OFFERS

Left Side: Market Bids ■ Right Side: Offers & Seller Expectations. Final Bids & Offers May Vary Depending On Exact Pickup or Delivery Location. Prices in AUD per metric tonne

BARLEY F1

Barley min F1:
Victoria Delivered Bids & Offers

Melbourne Range:
Bids◄► $387 – $390 ■ Offers ◄► $415-$440
Goulburn Valley:
Bids◄► $388-$390 ■ Offers ◄► $420-$450
Gippsland:
Bids◄► $407 -$420 ■ Offers ◄► $450-$465

Barley min F1:
Queensland Delivered Bids & Offers

Central Qld:
Bids▼ $415 – $420 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$440
Downs:
Bids ▼ $415 – $420 ■ Offers ◄► $430 – $445
Bris Fot:
Bids▼ at $390 – $400 ■ Offers ▲ $410 – $415

Barley min F1:
NSW Delivered Bids & Offers

Liverpool Plains:
Bids ▲ $430 – $432 ■ Offers ◄► $452 – $465
Riverina:
Bids ▲ $425 – $427 ■ Offers ◄► $432 – $440
Newcastle Fot:
Bids▲ $407 – $410 ■ Offers◄► $405 – $415

Barley min F1:
South Australia Bids & Offers

Adelaide Fot:
Bids◄► $335-$337 ■ Offers ◄► $355-$365
Delivered South East:
Bids ◄► $355-$357 ■ Offers ◄► $395-$405

WHEAT Min ASW

Wheat min ASW:
Victoria Delivered Bids & Offers

Melbourne:
Bids◄► $388-$390 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$445
Goulburn Valley
Bids◄► $395-$400 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$442
Gippsland
Bids◄► $415-$420 ■ Offers ◄► $447-$465

Wheat min ASW:
Queensland Delivered Bids & Offers

Central Qld
Bids ▼ $415 – $420 ■ Offers ◄► $450-$458
Downs:
Bids ▼ $400 – $405 ■ Offers ◄► $455 -$465
Brisbane Fot
Bids ▼ $390 ■ Offers ◄►$407-$415

Wheat min ASW:
South Australia Bids & Offers

Adelaide Fot:
Bids ◄► $340-$345 ■ Offers ◄► $375-$395
Delivered South East:
Bids ◄► $377-$380 ■ Offers ◄►$405-$425

Wheat min ASW:
NSW Delivered Bids & Offers

Liverpool Plains
Bids ▼ $430-$435 ■ Offers◄► $455-$460
Riverina:
Bids ▼ $405-$420 ■ Offers ▲ $442-$455
Newcastle Fot:
Bids ▼ $390-$395 ■ Offers ◄► $410-$415

OATS M1

Delivered Melbourne:
Bids ▲ $557-$565 ■ Offers ◄► $575-$580
Fot Newcastle:
Offers Only ▲ $550 – $565
Fot Parkes:
Offers Only ◄► $580-$587

MAIZE/CORN:

Farm Gate Bids & Offers
Victoria Feed Corn

Bids ◄► $455-$460 ■ Offers ◄► $482-$485
Riverina Grit Corn
Bids ◄► $475-$485 ■ Offers ◄► $495 – $500
Delivered Northern NSW 
Bids $550-$555 ◄► ■ Offers ◄► $560-$570

COTTONSEED:

2019 Ex Gin Bids & Offers

Southern Gin Spread
Bids ▼ $435 -$440 ■ Offers ◄► $455-$500
Northern Gin Spread
Bids ▼ $502-$510 ■ Offers ◄► $525-$550
Queensland
Bids ▼ $525 ■ Offers ◄► $550-$575

SORGHUM

Delivered Central Qld
Bids◄► $320-$330 ■ Offers ◄► $350-$370
Delivered Downs
Bids◄► $330 – $335 ■ Offers ◄► $372-$385
Delivered Brisbane
Bids◄► $360-$365 ■ Offers ◄► $405-$415
Delivered Melbourne
Bids ◄► $440-$450 ■ Offers◄► $465-$470
Delivered Sydney
Bids ◄► $400-$405 ■ Offers ◄► $410-$420

WARNING

Western Australian & South Australian Grown Lupins Are NOT Permitted To Be Transported Into NSW Without Proper Authority Please Check With DPI

Round LUPINS

Round: Farm Gate Bids & Offers

Farm Gate Victorian Grown Only
Bids▼ $590 -$600 ■ Offers▼ $605 – $620

FOT Victorian Port Bids & Offers
Western Australian Origin

Melbourne FOT Offers Only ▲ $540

ALBUS LUPINS :

Export DCT Bids & Offers
Victoria

Bids ▲$980 ■ Offers ◄► $1200-$1420

FIELD PEAS

Melbourne DCT Export No1s
Bids ▲ $555 – $565 ■ Offers ▼ $615-$625
Victoria Farm Gate Feed Peas
Bids ▲ $535 – $540 ■ Offers ▲ $550-$560

FABA BEANS

Melbourne DCT Export No1s
Bids ▲ $855 – $865 ■ Offers ◄► $950-$1000
Victoria Farm Gate Feed Faba
Bids ▲ $780 – $795 ■ Offers ▲ $810-$850

LENTILS:

Export DCT Bids & Offers
Victoria / SA

Nippers: Bids ▲ $590-$595 ■ Offers ◄► $610-$620
Nuggets: Bids ▲ $575-$580 ■ Offers ◄► $610-$640

FEED LENTILS:

Farm Gate Bids & Offers
Victoria

Bids ▲ $440-$465 ■ Offers ◄► $470-$480

CHICKPEAS:

Export DCT Bids & Offers

Brisbane
Desi: Bids ▼ $685 – $700 ■ Offers ◄► $875 – $900
Kabuli: ▼$690-$720 ■ Offers ◄► $1060-$1150
Melbourne / Adelaide
Desi: Bids ▼ $685 – $700 ■ Offers ◄► $875 – $900
Kabuli: ▼$690-$720 ■ Offers ◄► $1060-$1150

CANOLA

Non GM Min 42%
Delivered Bids & Offers

Delivered Melbourne:
Bids ▼ $560-$580 ■ Offers ▼ $600-$620
Delivered Riverina
Bids▼ $560 – $570 ■ Offers ▼$630-$640
Delivered Sydney / Newcastle
Bids ◄► $625 – $630 ■ Offers ◄► $650-$660

For Firm Pricing & Market Guidance Call GrainPro

1800 816 887 or visit: www.grainpro.com.au


Please Note The Information Above and Below Are Views Of Market Conditions and Prices As Expressed By GrainPro Pty Ltd and Are Not to be taken As Advice, They Are Only A Guide. Please consider your own Personal and Commercial Circumstances and responsibilities When Buying or Selling.